In The Press
Future Horizons’ CTO Gives Tour D’Horizon Of IC Process Future
Mike Bryant, CTO of Future Horizons, gave a tour d’horizon of the future of semiconductor process technology at the IFS-MT2010 conference in London earlier this week.
First of all Bryant tackled the problems:
“The cost of developing a process node is inversely proportional to the node length,” said Bryant, “so the cost of developing 22nm is twice that of 45nm which cost twice the 90nm development cost.”
It Is Beset With Difficulties That ARM Enters The Server Field
Future Horizons analyst Mike Bryant showed a few days ago, even the market of next year low power consumption server would grow significantly, but will be the world of Intel processor even AMD, ARM production will not increase by a large margin temporarily.
Analyst: Wimax Shrinking, LTE Has Issues
The battle between WiMax and Long Term Evolution (LTE) as the leading supplier of mobile broadband communications is over. WiMax is shrinking, according to Mike Bryant, an analyst with market research company Future Horizons. He pointed out that WiMax operators in the U.K. and The Netherlands are closing and that U.S. operators are considering re-applying their spectrum to other technologies.
EU Law To Stop KKR
With the Yanks preparing retrospective legislation that would bar BP from drilling in US waters for seven years, now is the time for the EU to pass a retrospective law.
The EU law would say that any company which has bought a European company and loaded it up with debt amounting to more than 50% of the value of the acquisition should be banned from M&A activity in Europe for seven years.
Always-On GPS, and Fractal Compression, Will Transform Handsets, says Future Horizons CTO
Always-on GPS is the next big innovation in mobile phones, coupled with better graphics processors, but the biggest limitation will always be the speed of the wireless links, Mike Bryant, CTO of Future Horizons told the IFS-MT2010 seminar in London today.
"Shannon’s Law dictates how much date is available over any link and Sod’s Law dictates this will never be enough", Bryant told delegates.
Moore's Law Lives But Silicon CMOS Is Doomed
There are some headaches ahead
While Intel is confident Moore's Law will continue well into the future, an analyst has warned that tough times are ahead for silicon based CMOS devices.
Mike Bryant, CTO of analyst firm Future Horizons, said that there isn't a reliable silicon transistor based 16 nanometre technology.
He said leakage and other problems will make silicon based transistors too unreliable as the process continues to shrink. He said the properties of silicon limit the drive current to barely enough to drive the next gate.
Single Missing Chip Can Bring Companies To Their Knees
The sad tale of Nissan and a missing IC
People ignore the importance of semiconductors at their peril and that's proved by Nissan assembly lines grinding to a halt when Hitachi failed to supply enough computer units to the car giant because its own supplier failed to supply one single little IC.
TSMC Set To Become A Chip Monopolist
It's got the money, could happen by default
Taiwanese foundry TSMC has enough money and clout to end up a monopolist by 2020, a senior chip analyst has warned.
Malcolm Penn. CEO of Future Horizons, who has run a fab himself, said that TSMC was perfectly prepared to produce its semiconductors on 450 millimetre wafers without the agreement of the rest of the industry.
Chip Industry To Hit $300 Billion This Year
Industry forecast for 2010 is 34 percent
Sales of semiconductors will surpass $300 billion in 2010 due to a quicker than usual rebound following the downturn of 2009.
Malcolm Penn, CEO of Future Horizon, said it had revised its forecast upward for the year, but he warned that short sighted and risk averse CEOs could rock the boat and allow the industry to enter another "trash cycle".
Penn said: "There's no algorithm that correctly forecasts how the semiconductor industry will perform. The semi market is driven by the hog cycle and cobwebs, that is to say by investment and lead times."
Penn Raises 2010 Chip Market Forecast, Cuts 2011
With signs of a strong second quarter for chip sales Malcolm Penn, founder and principal analyst with Future Horizons Ltd., has raised his forecast for growth in the global chip industry in 2010 to 36 percent, up from 31 percent, which he gave out in May 2010. However, Penn dropped his prediction for 2011 to 14 percent from 28 percent.
US Doesn't Rule The Economic Roost Any More
India begins to make great strides ahead
We're in the London Kensington Hilton, listening to Malcolm Penn, CEO of British analyst firm Future Horizons delivering his company's annual semiconductor industry forecast.
What makes Penn interesting is that he puts his forecasts of semiconductors in the context of the world economy and he believes that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has good data which helps his clients understand potential in the semi sector. There are correlations between the semi industry and world growth, but they vary according to conditions.
Semi Industry To Grow 36%; $300bn Barrier To Breach This Year, says Penn
Future Horizons reckons the semiconductor industry will grow 36% this year and will break through the $300bn threshold on December 14th 2010, Future Horizons’ CEO, Malcolm Penn, told the IFS-MT 2010 seminar in London this morning.
Penn reckons the quarterly growth pattern will be: 2.9% in Q1; 8.3% in Q2; 8% in Q3 and 2% in Q4.
Toshiba Steps Up NAND Chip Wars
To open another fab in Japan
Japanese giant Toshiba is set to break ground on a new fab in Yokkaichi in a bid to up its NAND Flash capacity.
According to nikkei.net, Fab 5 will allow Toshiba to compete with Korean firm Samsung, currently the world leader in NAND Flash technology.
Fab 5 will be built as part of Toshiba's joint venture with US company Sandisk and phase one is set to be finished in Spring next year.
The Delivery Date Of Products Is Lengthened The Crystal Plate Price Falls Instead
Estimate according to originator and chief analyst Malcolm Penn of the research institution Future Horizons of overseas market, the achievement of second quarter of market of crystal plate displays and presents great growth, but what made him puzzled is, those crazy suppliers let the crystal plate price drop continuously unexpectedly while the delivery date of products lengthened.
Penn Puzzled As Chip Asps Fall During Boom
Malcolm Penn, founder and principal analyst with market research company Future Horizons Ltd., sees the second quarter as being a "blockbuster" but is puzzled by the "madness" shown by chip companies that continue to allow chip prices to sink even as lead times lengthen.
Some chip companies are so busy pursuing market share and demonstrating loyalty to key customers that they are forgetting that the semiconductor industry has huge infrastructure costs that have to be financed by rebuilding ASPs and company profitability, said Penn.
Semiconductor Boom Will Turn To Bust
2010 Fine, 2011 Not So Fine
Short sighted semiconductor manufacturers might be counting their racks of doubloons during this year, and raking in the gelt, but next year they'll be wondering where all that gold dust has gone.
That's the view of Malcolm Penn, CEO of market research company Future Horizons, who has warned his clients of impending dearth largely due to lack of fab capacity.
He said: "April set the ball rolling for a blockbuster second quarter making what will now be five successive quarters of growth...The real issue now is 'what about 2011?'"
Seminar Debates European Venture Capital Model Is The European Model Of Venture Capital For Chip Start-Ups Broken?
The National Microelectronics Institute (NMI) is asking that question in the first of a series of panel debate topics to take place at Future World Symposium in London in September.
The session on 'financing the next wave of semiconductor innovation' is chaired by Malcolm Penn of chip researchers Future Horizons and will look at the declining availability of VC funding and determine potential alternative funding strategies for start-up companies.
Future World Symposium Debates Financing Innovation in the Next Decade
The National Microelectronics Institute (NMI) has unveiled the first in a series of panel debate topics to take place at Future World Symposium. Entitled 'financing the next wave of semiconductor innovation', the session will address the declining availability of VC funding and determine potential alternative funding strategies for start-up companies.
Malcolm Penn, CEO of the global semiconductor industry analyst house Future Horizons, will chair the panel.
Letter to the Editor: Taking issue with SIA
As reported, the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) has submitted an ambitious report to the U.S. Department of Commerce. The idea: It outlined actions required to meet the goal of doubling semiconductor exports by 2014.
One reader took issue with the SIA plan.
Dear Sirs,
I read with dismay your recent article “SIA devises plan to double IC exports”, EETimes, 06/17/2010 and the six point plan devised by the SIA. In my humble opinion there are three key points missing from this 'plan'.
Point 0: Build products that the market wants to buy at a price the customer is willing to pay.
Point 7: Start wafer fabbing again; right now if the US firms doubled their exports they would also double their imports and further strengthen TSMC’s near stranglehold on the industry.
Point 8 ... Forget about points 2-6 and focus on points 0 and 7. Even if the US government fixed the issues raised it would not solve the problems which are far more fundamental than simply playing with the periphery ... a 'nip here, tuck there' proposal.
May 2010 Global Semicon Update: Four Quarters Of Sequential Growth, Yet Still No One Believes! Wake Up, Says Future Horizons
Here are the excerpts from the Global Semiconductor Monthly Report, May 2010, provided by Malcolm Penn, chairman, founder and CEO of Future Horizons. There are a lot of charts associated with this report. The report also covers market trends. Those interested to know more may contact Future Horizons.
March’s total semiconductor sales came in at $26,533 billion, slightly above our February expectation, closing the quarter at $69,181 billion. This was up 2.8 percent over Q4-2009 and one of the strongest first quarter performances ever in what is normally a negative growth quarter. We have now had four straight quarters of industry growth, yet still no one believes in the strength of the recovery!
TSMC Enables Business Growth Through Effective And Collaborative Innovation
While speaking on ‘Enabling business growth through effective and collaborative innovation’, at the recently held International Electronics Forum (IEF) 2010 in Dresden, Germany, Dr. Jack Sun, CTO and vice president, R&D, TSMC said that TSMC leads and invests heavily in competitive, energy efficient, and eco-friendly technologies to enable product innovation, such as CMOS platform scaling (40/28/20nm/FinFET, low-R,ELK..), More-than-Moore, and integrated package/3D-IC.
Globalfoundries Enabling The Next Wave Of ‘Foundry’ Innovation
According to Mojy Chian, Senior Vice President, Design Enablement, GlobalFoundries, continued innovation in the foundry business demands a new approach. He was speaking at the recently held International Electronics Forum (IEF) 2010 organized by Future Horizons in Dresden, Germany.
GlobalFoundries is bringing a highly integrated model to foundry, which involves the extension of customer operations, early customer-foundry engagement, as well as close collaboration and joint technology development. This would enable faster time to volume and market, leading to smooth ramps to mature yields. Chian added that design, manufacturing, and EDA/IP solutions must work in unison to accomplish this.
Plastic Logic’s QUE Proreader Looks To Mean Business!
Konrad Herre, VP Manufacturing, Plastic Logic, gave a very interesting presentation on the commercialization of plastic electronic technology — specifically, new product segments based on organic electronics, at the recently held International Electronics Forum (IEF) 2010, organized by Future Horizons in Dresden, Germany.
New Frontiers In MEMS Around The Human Body
At the recently held International Electronics Forum (IEF) 2010, organized by Future Horizons in Dresden, Germany, Benedetto Vigna, Group Vice President and General Manager, MEMS, Sensors and High Performance Analog Division, STMicroelectronics, made a wonderful presentation on how MEMS can be useful for the human body, especially from the medical electronics point of view.
MEMS (microelectromechanical systems) is a three-dimensional device embedded in silicon, and uses silicon’s mechanical (and electrical) properties. It supports multifunctional systems of actuators, electronics and sensors.
Providing ‘Real Solutions’ Will Be Next Challenge For IC Suppliers
At the recently held International Electronics Forum (IEF 2010) in Dresden, Germany, Rich Beyer, chairman and CEO, Freescale Semiconductor highlighted that the “need for providing ‘real solutions’ ” would be the next challenge for the various IC suppliers.
Increasing complexity means that the OEMs are now relying heavily on the IC suppliers for system-level support and software development. Also, connected intelligence, which is really blurring the traditional market boundaries. This requires system-level expertise combined with the knowledge of multiple market technologies.
HSIA Connects With Global Industry Leaders At The International Electronics Forum 2010
May 14, 2010
Athens, Greece - The Hellenic Semiconductor Industry Association (HSIA – www.hellenic-sia.org) connected with leading executives from the full spectrum of the microelectronics industry at the renowned International Electronics Forum (IEF) 2010, held in Dresden, Germany 5-7 May 2010.
The general manager of the HSIA, Dionisis Kolokotsas, who participated in the event raised the attention of business leaders to the great potential of the microelectronics sector in Greece. "We worked hard to deliver the message that we innovate with excellence to compete in the global market. We gained a lot of interest, and this creates an even greater responsibility to bring a positive first contact to the next level."
The Riddle Of 450mm
The whole 450mm wafer thing is a puzzle. Last week at IEF 2010, there was TSMC's CTO Jack Sun, saying he wanted and expected 450mm to happen while, listening to him in the audience, was Heinz Kundert, European CEO of SEMI whose members make the chip manufacturing equipment, who said later: "We don't want it."
Why Is The SIA Talking The Industry Down?
Why is the SIA talking the industry down? "The SIA's job is to collect information, analyse it and draw conclusions, but their analysis is on the level of the kindergarten," said Malcolm Penn, CEO of UK analysts Future Horizons at the company's International Electronics Forum 2010 in Dresden earlier this week.
IMEC CEO Sees EUV As Next Gen Litho Tool
EUV is the most likely candidate for the next generation of IC lithography, said Luc Van den hove, president and CEO of IMEC, speaking at the International Electronics Forum 2010 in Dresden this morning.
"Scaling will continue for many years to come", said Van den hove, "for logic, for DRAM, for NAND – each with their specific layout requirements - allowing faster scaling for things like NAND which has these very regular structures."
Software Cost Favours Large Companies, says Freescale's Beyer
The semiconductor industry is splitting into three parts: Commodity – including discretes etc; Highly specialised – including analogue, power management etc; Solutions – where companies provide much of the final solution, integrating all the analogue, processors etc. This was the opening statement of Freescale CEO Rich Beyer at the International Electronics Forum 2010 in Dresden this morning.
- http://www.electronicsweekly.com/Articles/2010/05/06/48569/tsmc-cto-expects-450mm-processing-in-2015.htmTSMC CTO Expects 450mm Processing In 2015
TSMC, working with ASML and MAPPER, have developed a prototype multi-e-beam tool for semiconductor lithography, according to Dr Jack Sun, CTO of TSMC, speaking to the International Electronics Forum 2010 in Dresden this morning.
SIA Is Talking The Industry Down, says Future Horizons
The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) is talking the industry down, said Malcolm Penn, CEO of Future Horizons at his company’s International Electronics Forum 2010 in Dresden today.
"I was bemused by the SIA comments on the March figures when they said they were reasonably confident the industry would grow in double digits this year", Penn told the IEF, adding, "it’s downright impossible to get it into single digits. It would take a minus 15% Q3, and a minus 20% Q4 to get it into single figures."
Colour Display From Plastic Logic Next Year
Plastic Logic aims to have a manufacturable colour display by the end of 2011 and to move it into volume production in 2012, according to Achim Neu, Director SCM, at Plastic Logic, speaking to the International Electronics Forum 2010 in Dresden today.
"We have built a colour display and it is working at our Cambridge laboratory", Neu told the conference.
Globalfoundries To Announce New Expansion In Next Few Weeks
Globalfoundries will announce a further expansion to its advanced manufacturing capabilities in the next few weeks which will make its capacity on advanced technology nodes comparable with the capacity of TSMC, according to Mojy Chian, Globalfoundries’ senior vice president for device enablement, speaking at the International Electronics Forum 2010 in Dresden this morning.
Globalfoundries Hints At Further Expansion Plans
DRESDEN, Germany — GlobalFoundries Inc. (Sunnyvale, Calif.), already at the start of building a $5 billion wafer fab in New York state, appears to be getting ready to announce further expansion plans to help it profit from strong demand for foundry manufacturing services.
Analysis: 'Blowout' Q1 Has Chip Analysts Thinking Bigger
Three market research analysts revised upward their forecasts for the 2010 semiconductor market Thursday (May 6) after crunching the better-than-expected numbers from the first quarter.
TSMC Charts Out Its Giga Fab Futures
IEF 2010Is GloFo the new AMD to TSMC’s Intel?
The chief technology officer (CTO) of TSMC had a way interesting set of slides to show delegates to this year’s International Electronic Forum in Dresden.
TSMC, of course, is the world’s number one foundry, a position that GloFo (Global Foundries) would like to challenge.
Sun started by saying that he predicted there will be 22 percent growth globally in the IC business, reaching $276 billion – between 2011 and 2014 the position will change somewhat, with 4.2 percent CAGR for the IC industry and 7.2 percent CAGR for the Fabless – that is to say the customers of GloFo and TSMC.
Svarovski Sees Through A Glass, Lightly
IEF 2010 Crystal clearSemi division says glass is best.
Who would have thought that Svarovski had a semiconductor division? We didn’t know that it has a division called Swareflex that wants to turn LED lighting around by using pure glass, rather than plastic.
Dr Thomas Wiemers, MD of Swareflex, explained why he thought glass is a better answer for LED lighting than plastic.
Wear Your Heart On Your Sleeve
IEF 2010MEMS could revolutionise healthcare market. Benedetto Vigna, group VP of ST Micro’s MEMS, sensors and high performance analogue division said his company was exploring “new frontiers” in micro electro mechanical systems (MEMS).
Sensors appear to be the new frontier for many of the big players in the semi industry and essentially a MEMS is a three dimensional device embedded in silicon and that uses silicon’s mechanical and electrical properties, supporting multifunctional systems of actuators, electronics and sensors.
There’s Gold In Them Thar Organic Electronics
IEF2010 Projections are high, but reality is promising
Karl Leo, a scientist at IAPP, delivered a most interesting talk about the promise organic electronics holds.
He said that we know about 5,000 organic materials that have semiconductor properties. There are three main application areas, he said – OLEDs (organic LEDs), photovoltaic (PV) and organic logic. He points out that while OLEDs are still limited to small displays, the quality of the displays are very high.
Smart Pill Only 10 Years Away
Luc Van Den Hove, the CEO of IMEC, gave a most interesting talk called Nano-Electronics: Shaping our Future, here in Dresden today.
He said that silicon technology is governed by exponential rules. The vision of being connected at anytime has clearly been realised and we can now connect to anyone in the world using these virtual networks. He said that while user interfaces will have to become much more user friendly.
Semi Industry Has Its Head In The Sand
IEF 2010Capacity, capacity they’ve heard of it
06 May 2010 13:42 | by Mike Magee | posted in Chips 1 Comment
Malcolm Penn, the CEO of Future Horizons, gave his view on the directions of the semiconductor industry. And, like the price of a 450 millimetre fab, it’s not pretty, not pretty at all.
Penn said: “This industry is built on uncertainty. You have to believe that tomorrow has got to be better. We’ve lost the ability to take risks. Risk is a natural part of life.”
Chips Can't Be Ruled Out In Toyota Failures, Says Freescale CEO IEF 2010. But quality is most stringent in car business
The first keynote speaker here at IEF was Rich Beyer, Freescale's CEO and chairman, who forecast the ways the market had changed and how it will change in the future.
But he also talked about Toyota. He said that when Toyota had to recall its vehicles, he thought hard about whether semiconductor companies could rule themselves out as a potential cause.
- http://www.eetimes.com/news/latest/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=224701033
Analysis: 'Blowout' Q1 Has Chip Analysts Thinking Bigger
SAN FRANCISCO—Three market research analysts revised upward their forecasts for the 2010 semiconductor market Thursday (May 6) after crunching the better-than-expected numbers from the first quarter.
Dale Ford of iSuppli Corp., Malcom Penn of Future Horizons Ltd. and independent analyst Mike Cowan are now all predicting 2010 chip growth north of 30 percent following the revisions. It would mark the first time the chip market grew by more than 30 percent in a year since 2000, when the dot com boom drove a spike in demand and the market expanded more than 36 percent.
Penn Raises Chip Market Growth Forecast To 31%
DRESDEN, Germany — Malcolm Penn, founder and principal analyst with Future Horizons Ltd. (Sevenoaks, England), has raised his forecast for the growth of global chip industry in 2010 to 31 percent, up from 22 percent which he gave out in January 2010. The change was made on the strength of the Q1 financial results reported by chip companies and his perception of continued strength in Q2, Penn said.
Thrive Or Survive…Going For Gold In Post-Recession Recovery
According to Malcom Penn, chairman and CEO, Future Horizons, 2010 — a barnstroming year — will likely see the global semiconductor industry grow by 31+ percent. He was delivering the company’s forecast at the ongoing 19th International Electronics Forum (IEF) 2010 in Dresden, Germany, which ends here tomorrow. He said it would take a disaster of the scale of Lehmann Brothers to derail this now!
International Electronics Forum 2009 - News Roundup
We roundup all the latest news and developments from the International Electronics Forum 2010 (IEF 2010) in Dresden, reported by our man on the spot, components editor David Manners.
Hosted by the analysts Future Horizons, the conference runs from 5th - 7th May.
Imagination CEO Says 28nm EDA Is Wanting
The design tools for 28nm are inadequate at eliminating errors, and the analogue components needed for 28nm designs are not available, according to Hossein Yassaie, CEO of Imagination Technologies, a panel speaker at the International Electronics Forum 2010 this morning
Globalfoundries To Announce New Expansion In Next Few Weeks
Globalfoundries will announce a further expansion to its advanced manufacturing capabilities in the next few weeks which will make its capacity on advanced technology nodes comparable with the capacity of TSMC, according to Mojy Chian, Globalfoundries’ senior vice president for device enablement, speaking at the International Electronics Forum 2010 in Dresden this morning.
Global Semicon Trends And Spotlight: UWB And PV Developments
Here are the excerpts from the Global Semiconductor Monthly Report, March 2010, provided by Malcolm Penn, chairman, founder and CEO of Future Horizons. This post covers market trends and semicon developments. Those interested to know more may contact Future Horizons.
Foundries Will Turn Screw On Fabless, Fablite Firms This Year
Capacity maxed out in semiconductor business
A report from a senior semiconductor analyst is warning that pessimism will restrain growth during 2010 with most companies refusing to believe that the industry is on the upturn.
Malcolm Penn, CEO of Future Horizons, said that growth less than 22 percent during this year is now "all but impossible". That would make the industry just worth a tiny bit short of $300 billion.
India Needs To Rethink Its Semiconductor Strategy?
At the Future Horizons' International Forecast Seminar (IFS) in London, Malcolm Penn, CEO and founder, said that the global semiconductor market will fall by 28 percent in value and by 26 percent in unit shipments in 2009 after the unprecedented collapse of Q4 2008.
That set me thinking: is the global semiconductor industry's situation really so bad? And, what of the Indian semiconductor industry? Does it need to re-look at its semiconductor policy as well? To get answers to these questions and more, I went straight to Malcolm Penn. Excerpts from an interview:
CIOL: Isn't a 28 percent drop too high? Or, is the industry situation really that bad?
Chip Market Boom Makes Analyst Hike Forecast
Bruce Diesen, analyst with Carnegie ASA (Oslo, Norway), has raised his forecast for 2010 chip market growth from 13 percent to 15 percent on the strength of the January global chip sales reported by the Semiconductor Industry Association.
The three-month average of world chip sales was $22.43 billion in December 2009 and it typically falls from December to January. "The three-month average of world chip sales was $22.49 billion in January, far above the $21.8 billion we expected," said Diesen in an email. "We are raising our 2010 semiconductor forecast from 13 to 15 percent growth, measured in US dollars."
Absolutely Fabless? Or Not So Fabulous?
The reputation of the fast-growth, high market share success of the fabless semiconductor business model has been much overblown, it was argued at the IFS2010 meeting in London last month.
"Fabless ain't all it's cracked up to be", said Malcolm Penn, CEO of Future Horizons, presenting his evidence for that statement in the following bullet points:
Where The Boom Never Bust
BUSINESS MAY be dismal in the technology industry generally at the moment, but one sector is definitely bucking the trend. Semiconductors have had two of their best quarters in history, smack in the middle of the hardest downturn in the economy since the Depression.
“We’ve recovered already within 2009,” says semiconductor industry analyst Bill McClean, president of IC Insights. In a market worth $235 billion (€172 billion) last year, he’s predicting 15 per cent growth this year as a “very conservative” estimate – and thinks there’s a very good chance of 20-25 per cent growth, with the semiconductor materials market growing by 17 per cent.
Semiconductor Industry Set To Boom
The global market for semiconductors is set for two years of growth at more than 20% per annum, according to bullish forecasts from Malcolm Penn, founder and chief executive of market analysis group Future Horizons. And he believes the market could grow by more than 30% in a single year.
Intel Flash, Apple Departures, Arm Roadmap Lead Weekly Story Ranking
Here are the top five online stories for the week beginning Sunday, Jan. 31, as ranked by EE Times readers, up to and including Friday, Feb. 5. The ranking is based on the number of reader "views" or "hits" on a particular article.
European Taxpayer Subsidising TSMC
Is the good old European taxpayer subsidising TSMC? This was asked at the IFS2010 meeting in London last week.
"The European share of the world semiconductor market is 13% and what we're doing today means it will probably represent 5% of the world market in 2014. Furthermore, the European share of world semiconductor production is 5%. So why is Europe spending $1.8 billion a year on semiconductor R&D?" asked Malcolm Penn, CEO of Future Horizons.
Global Semicon Industry Update: 30 Percent Growth Now On Radar For 2010, Says Future Horizons
Here are the excerpts from the Global Semiconductor Monthly Report, January 2010, provided by Malcolm Penn, chairman, founder and CEO of Future Horizons. There are a lot of charts associated with this report. The report also covers market trends. Those interested to know more may contact Future Horizons.
There's Good News and There's Bad News
And so amid the hoopla and yippie-i-o signalling great growth for the world semiconductor market, where sits Europe in the beanfeast to come?
The news is not so great. Malcolm Penn, chief executive officer of Future Horizons berated European governments, the EU, European semiconductor companies and their trade associations citing a nonchalant attitude to offshore manufacturing and a fab lite strategy.
Netbooks To Power World Semiconductor Market
Recession or not, it seems we can't get enough of netbooks, notebooks and mobile telephones. All three products are now driving the renewed vigour of the semiconductor market.
New models helped the push, and interestingly over half of all netbooks shipped last year came to the EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa) market. Alan Brown, senior industry analyst at Future Horizons described the PC and mobile phone markets as "surprisingly resilient" in his presentation on semiconductor applications market at the Semiconductor Industry Forecast Seminar in London earlier this week.
Chip Market Recovery to Accelerate in 2010/2011
Delegates left the Future Horizons Semiconductor Industry Forecast Seminar into a chilly West London wind, which given the predictions they'd been absorbing may have felt like a gentle zephyr from the south of France.
Avoid The Wall Street Devil
At all costs, chip company CEOs should avoid following Wall Street's recommendations on how to run a semiconductor company, it was stated at IFS 2010 in London last week.
Global Semiconductor Report; 'Future Is Bright'
Future Horizons' monthly global semiconductor report reveals that November's ic sales were up 29.3% on November 2008. However, the sales were down 2.4 % on October 2009.
The report stated that 2009 will come in close to Future Horizons' original minus 10% forecast, most probably at 9.7%. Future Horizons' chairman and ceo, Malcolm Penn (pictured) said that this sets 2010 up for a 'bumper double digit growth' year.
Semi Market To Soar By €385 Billion 2014
Our favourite chip analyst, Malcolm Penn of Future Horizons has some great news for the chip industry.
Estimated to be worth $205.2 billion in 2009, the market forecast in 2014 is for $385.2 billion, according to Penn in his latest Future Horizons report.
Penn breaks down the growth drivers for some of the major segments including PCs, Automotive, Consumer, and Mobile Phones.
Analyst Finds Flaws In Fab-Lite Biz Model
Malcolm Penn, principal analyst with Future Horizons predicts that the fabless chip vendors and fab-lite manufacturing pursuers are in for a rude shock. As per him, some companies could under-perform, others could be driven out of business in a market that should be booming for them—and all because they have lost control of manufacturing.
TSMC Leads 2009 Foundry Rankings; Globalfoundries Top Challenger!
Recently, IC Insights released the rankings for the world’s top pure-play and IDM foundries. No surprises, as TSMC continues to lead! The surprise entrant is of course GlobalFoundries, which ranked fourth, after having started operations in March 2009.
However, all of the foundries, barring Tower Semiconductor, registered negative growth during 2009. Tower, which acquired Jazz Semiconductor in 2008, was the only foundry to post positive growth during 2009.
European R&D Is Subsidising TSMC
Is European semiconductor R&D being pursued for the benefit of TSMC? The question was asked at the IFS2010 meeting in London earlier this week.
"The European share of the world semiconductor market is 13% and what we're doing today means it will probably represent 5% of the world market in 2014. Furthermore, the European share of world semiconductor production is 5%. So why is Europe spending $1.8bn a year on semiconductor R&D?" asked Malcolm Penn, CEO of Future Horizons.
http://www.eetimes.com/news/design/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=222600264
Analyst Rails Against The Fab-Lite
The fabless chip vendors and pursuers of fab-lite manufacturing strategies are about to get a shock, according to Malcolm Penn, principal analyst with Future Horizons (Sevenoaks, England). Some companies could under-perform, others could be driven out of business in a market that should be booming for them — and all because they have lost control of manufacturing.
Future Horizons Sees 30% Chip Market Boom
The worldwide chip market is set for two years of more than 20 percent growth and could even hit more than 30 percent growth in a single year, according to Malcolm Penn, the principal analyst and founder of the U.K. market analysis company Future Horizons .
Qualcomm, AMD Head Top 25 Fabless IC Suppliers For 2009; Taiwan Firms Finish Strong!
So, IC Insights has revealed the top 25 list of fabless IC suppliers for 2009! No surprises, Qualcomm still leads!
However, AMD is the surprise runner-up, for now. The reason being: AMD became a fabless company by including its Dresden, Germany fabs as part of GlobalFoundries spin-off. IC Insights included all of AMD’s sales for 2009 in its study.
Future Horizons Sees 30% Chip Market Boom
The worldwide chip market is set for at two years of more than 20 percent growth and could even hit more than 30 percent growth in a single year, according to Malcolm Penn, the principal analyst and founder of the U.K. market analysis company Future Horizons (Sevenoaks, England).
Shenanigans At Infineon (Mannerisms)
Germany looks like providing us with a bit of fun the week after next with the possible, long over-due, clear-out of the Infineon supervisory board.
Infineon is a great engineering company hobbled by a shocking bad management.
As Europe's leading semiconductor analyst, Malcolm Penn, CEO of Future Horizons puts it:
Seeing But Not Believing
Could the IC market be headed back to its traditional 14% CAGR? That was suggested at IFS 2010 in London this morning.
"The semiconductor market is going back to double digit annual growth rates for the next five years. That's not that far from the long-term industry growth rate of 14%", said Malcolm Penn, CEO of Future Horizons.
Semi Market Heads To Double Digit ...
The semiconductor market is going back to double digit annual growth rates for the next five years, it was stated at Future Horizons' IFS 2010 in London this morning.
"That's not that far from the long-term industry growth rate of 14%", said Malcolm Penn, CEO of Future Horizons, "the fundamentals of the chip industry are fantastic.
Time To Act
Quarterly Analyst Column
IMEC Confirms SEMI Europe’s Call For Action
Today, on a live broadcast on BBC World News Business Report, Luc Van den Hove, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer at IMEC confirmed SEMI Europe’s position that actions are required to keep Europe’s semiconductor industry competitive.
Future Horizons Postpones Its Annual IEF
In another sign of the problems facing the semiconductor industry, Future Horizons (Sevenoaks, England) has had to postpone its annual International Electronics Forum (IEF) that was scheduled to take place next month in Geneva, Switzerland
MEMC Confirms 50% Fall In Sales For First Quarter
Although not releasing full financial results until April 23rd MEMC has reported that its first quarter revenues will be approximately US$214 million, a 50% decline from the previous quarter. The company had guided a 50% fall at lasts quarter’s conference call. However, gross margins are expected to be approximately 9% of sales, compared to the company's previous outlook of declining to the 20% range
Wafer Fab Capacity Showed A Surprise Decrease In Q4 2008,†Comments Future Horizons’ Malcolm Penn
Overall MOS wafer fab capacity showed a surprise decrease of 1.7 percent in Q4-08 versus Q3-08, from 2,145k 200mm equivalent wafer starts per week to 2,108k, in Future Horizons’ March report. The decreases were highest in 200mm and below wafer sizes and 150nm and tighter feature sizes. The decrease compares with the 1.3 percent increase experienced this time last year and fundamentally adds to the ongoing slowdown in capital expenditure that began mid-2007. “Given the continuing slowdown in 2009 cap ex, low levels of capacity expansion - possibly further declines - will continue throughout 2009,†said Malcolm Penn, Chairman and CEO of Future Horizons.
ASP Recovery Clouded By Doom And Gloom?
A structural pent-up period of supply side restrictions possibly starting as early as later this year will possibly push up IC device ASPs
LONDON, UK. January's IC sales saw IC ASPs increase by 4.4 percent versus January 2008 and 3.9 percent on December 2008, according to the March report from Future Horizons.
Malcolm Penn, Chairman and CEO of Future Horizons, said: "This is exceptional given that ASPs in the first month of any quarter are always lower than the third month of the previous quarter, the 'making the quarterly number phenomenon."
Fear For Semiconductor Shortage
Malcolm Penn of Future Horizons fear capacity shortages on the semiconductor market.
Components Since mid 2007, the semiconductor industry's investment in new equipment has been very limited. According to Malcolm Penn there is now a reduction seen in the semiconductor industry's capacity in the fabs for MOS components. The world's total production capacity fell from third to fourth quarter 2008 by 1.7 percent, compared with 1.3 percent increase over the corresponding period in 2007. The decrease was greatest for production on 200 mm wafers and smaller sizes. The decrease is believed to continue.
SEMI Sponsors Penn To Pitch Chip Industry To The European Union
Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI), the industry body that represents chipmaking equipment makers and materials suppliers, has arranged for Malcolm Penn, chairman and CEO of analysis firm Future Horizons Ltd. (Sevenoaks, England), to give a seminar on the role of the silicon chip to the European Commission in Brussels on April 23.
Future Horizons turns 20!
Future Horizons celebrated its 20th birthday on April 1. Founded by Malcolm Penn on April 1, 1989, it is the world's leading independent semiconductor analysts.
"When we set up shop 20 years ago our Worldwide HQ was an attic office in Fleet Street, London, home to Cochrane Communications, the PR agency for Eaton, Fairchild Semiconductors, SEMI and Teradyne," said Malcolm Penn, Chairman, founder and CEO of Future Horizons. "Future Horizons was founded on strong semiconductor start up principles; spinning out from a market leader that was becoming complacent (Dataquest) and exploiting a market opportunity ignored by the incumbents; namely the re-birth of a powerful European chip industry led and epitomised by Pasquale Pistorio, then CEO of STMicroelectronics."
Keep your eye on semiconductor ASPs, says Future Horizon
Few people would be surprised that January IC sales were not particularly strong, but a look at the data shows that ASPs were actually up 4.4% on year, according to Future Horizons. And while the market research firm does not believe the market will rebound in the first half of this year, it believes that when the market does show an upturn, the trend of increasing ASPs will not go away.
Looking at the data, January sales were down 31.6% in value (34.5% in units) from the same time last year, said Future Horizons. January sales were also down on a weekly run-rate basis, 6.6% in value (10.1% in units) from December 2008. In both cases the unit declines were steeper than the value, which meant ASPs were up 4.4% on the same time last year, and 3.9% on December 2008.
Semicon update: 2009's on track for cyclical recovery
Unsurprisingly, January's sales were not particularly strong, down 31.6 percent in value (34.5 percent in units) from the same time last year, says Malcolm Penn, CEO and founder of Future Horizons.
They were also down, on a weekly run-rate basis, 6.6 percent in value (10.1 percent in units) from December 2008. In both cases the unit declines were steeper than the value, which meant ASPs were UP 4.4 percent on the same time last year, and UP 3.9 percent on December 2008.
TSMC, UMC boost output at wafer fabs
AMD’s orders, which have been put on both TSMC and UMC, are said to amount to a total of 30,000 wafers: 4-5,000 in March; 8-9,000 in April; 10,000 for May and another 10,000 for June.
Bristol CEOs network with North-West Technology
If government were to pay the first two years’ costs of employing IET and IEEE qualified engineers in this country, the output of the UK electronics industry, and the value of the UK electronics industry in the eyes of venture capital investors, would both double overnight, according to Stan Boland, CEO of wireless start-up Icera Semiconductor.
Intel, TSMC collaborate on Atom
Intel and TSMC have signed a Memorandum Of Understanding under which they will collaborate on technology platform, IP infrastructure, and SoC solutions. Under the terms of the agreement, Intel will port its Atom processor cpu cores to the TSMC technology platform including processes, IP, libraries, and design flows.